Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) of an...

Information Campaign to Increase Enrollment of Low-Income, Academically Proficient Students at a Highly Selective College

Reviewed

Postsecondary Education
Accurately reported
Credible positive finding

NBER (July 2026) posted RCT results for a campaign informing low-income, academically proficient Michigan high school students that, if they applied and were admitted to the University of Michigan (U-M), they could attend tuition-free.  At the six-year follow-up, this high-quality RCT found a large (12 percentage point) increase in bachelor’s degree receipt from U-M or other highly selective colleges.

Earnings inequality among college graduates has grown, and returns to a bachelor's degree (BA) vary substantially across colleges. We experimentally evaluate a program that shifted high-achieving, low-income students into higher-quality colleges. Students randomly offered a guarantee of four years of tuition and fees at the University of Michigan were 21 percentage points more likely to enroll at a UM campus. The offer shifted students across colleges rather than into college: most compliers would otherwise have attended less-selective four-year colleges.  HAIL increased four-year BA completion by 4 percentage points, but had no effect on attainment after six years. It substantially increased degree quality: students offered the scholarship were 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree from a highly or most selective college.  IV estimates indicate that students induced to attend a University of Michigan campus were 56 percentage points more likely to earn such a degree. The increase in college quality predicts earnings gains of 18 to 25 percent. Faster degree completion adds about another 1 percent to the present discounted value of lifetime earnings.

Full Study Report

We have no suggested revisions to the study abstract.

No-Spin’s Study Overview

High-quality RCT of a campaign informing low-income, academically proficient Michigan high school students that they can attend the University of Michigan (U-M) tuition-free if they apply and are admitted, finds a 12 percentage point increase in bachelor’s degree receipt from U-M or other highly selective colleges at the six-year follow-up.

Program:

  • Through personalized mailings and communications, an information campaign encouraged qualified high school students to apply to U-M and informed them that, if accepted, they would automatically receive the High Achieving Involved Leader (HAIL) scholarship – which covers all tuition and fees over four years.
  • Students qualified if they attended a Michigan public high school, were eligible for subsidized school meals (based on income), and performed above test-score and GPA cutoffs chosen by the U-M admissions office. Qualifying SAT scores started at 1100 while qualifying GPAs started at 3.3.

Study Design:

  • The study sample comprised 588 unique public high schools in Michigan, containing a total of 3,910 rising seniors meeting the qualifications described above.
  • The schools were randomly assigned to a treatment group, in which qualified students received the information campaign; or a control group, in which qualified students were eligible for the HAIL scholarship but did not receive the information campaign.
  • Based on our review criteria, this was a well-conducted RCT.

Findings:

  • Six years after random assignment, the study found a large, statistically significant impact on the main targeted outcome: Treatment students were 12 percentage points more likely than control students to have earned a bachelor’s degree from U-M or another U.S. college that is equally or more selective (based on Barron’s selectivity index).
  • Specifically, 26% of treatment students versus 14% of control students earned such a degree (p<0.01).
  • The study found no impact on the rate of bachelor’s degree completion at any U.S. college (63% of treatment students versus 63% of control students).

Comment:

  • Whether the information campaign’s success at increasing degrees from highly selective colleges (but not overall bachelor’s completion) will ultimately yield gains in earnings and other economic outcomes is not yet known.
  • The study’s projections of sizable earnings gains (noted in the abstract above) are based on correlational (non-RCT) evidence about the relationship between degree-awarding institution and workforce earnings – and are therefore only suggestive.
  • Longer-term follow-up of this RCT to measure earnings would be highly valuable, shedding light on whether this straightforward intervention advances the ultimate policy goal of increased economic mobility for low-income students.
  • Disclosure: Arnold Ventures, which funds No-Spin Evidence Review, helped fund an earlier follow-up of this RCT.

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