Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) of an...

Information Campaign to Encourage High-Achieving, Low-Income Students to Enroll at a Highly Selective College

Reviewed

Postsecondary Education
Accurately reported
Credible positive finding

NBER (July 2026) posted RCT results for a campaign informing high-achieving, low-income Michigan high school students that, if they applied and were admitted to the University of Michigan (U-M), they could attend tuition-free.  At the six-year follow-up, this high-quality RCT found a large (12 percentage point) increase in bachelor’s degree receipt from U-M or another highly selective college.

Earnings inequality among college graduates has grown, and returns to a bachelor's degree (BA) vary substantially across colleges. We experimentally evaluate a program that shifted high-achieving, low-income students into higher-quality colleges.  Students randomly offered a guarantee of four years of tuition and fees at the University of Michigan were 21 percentage points more likely to enroll at a UM campus. The offer shifted students across colleges rather than into college: most compliers would otherwise have attended less-selective four-year colleges. HAIL increased four-year BA completion by 4 percentage points, but had no effect on attainment after six years. It substantially increased degree quality: students offered the scholarship were 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree from a highly or most selective college.  IV estimates indicate that students induced to attend a University of Michigan campus were 56 percentage points more likely to earn such a degree. The increase in college quality predicts earnings gains of 18 to 25 percent. Faster degree completion adds about another 1 percent to the present discounted value of lifetime earnings.

Full Study Report

We have no suggested revisions to the study abstract.

No-Spin’s Study Overview

High-quality RCT of a campaign informing high-achieving, low-income Michigan high school students that they can attend the University of Michigan (U-M) tuition-free if they apply and are admitted, finds a 12 percentage point increase in bachelor’s degree receipt from U-M or another highly selective college at the six-year follow-up.

Program:

  • Through personalized mailings and communications, an information campaign encouraged qualified high school students to apply to U-M and informed them that, if accepted, they would automatically receive the High Achieving Involved Leader (HAIL) scholarship – which covers all tuition and fees for four years of U-M attendance.
  • Students qualified if they attended a Michigan public high school, were eligible for subsidized school meals (based on income), and performed above test-score and GPA cutoffs chosen by the U-M admissions office. Qualifying SAT scores started at 1100 while qualifying GPAs started at 3.3.

Study Design:

  • The study sample comprised 588 unique public high schools in Michigan, containing a total of 3,910 rising seniors meeting the qualifications described above.
  • The schools were randomly assigned to a treatment group, in which qualified students received the information campaign; or a control group, in which qualified students were eligible for the HAIL scholarship but did not receive the information campaign.
  • Based on our review criteria, this was a well-conducted RCT.

Findings:

  • Six years after random assignment, the study found a large, statistically significant impact on the main targeted outcome: 26% of treatment students versus 14% of control students earned a bachelor’s degree from U-M or another U.S. college that is equally or more selective, based on Barron’s selectivity index (p<0.01).
  • The study found no impact on the overall rate of bachelor’s degree completion at any U.S. college (63% of treatment students earned a bachelor's degree versus 63% of control students).

Comment:

  • Longer-term follow-up of this RCT to measure workforce earnings would be highly valuable, shedding light on whether this straightforward intervention advances the ultimate policy goal of increased economic mobility for low-income students.
  • The study’s projections of sizable earnings gains (noted in the abstract above) are based on correlational (non-RCT) evidence about the relationship between degree-awarding institution and workforce earnings – and are therefore only suggestive.
  • Disclosure: Arnold Ventures, which funds No-Spin Evidence Review, helped fund an earlier follow-up of this RCT.

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