Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) of...

Early College High Schools in North Carolina

Reviewed

K-12 Education ,  Postsecondary Education
Not accurately reported
Credible positive finding

AERA Open (November 2024) published long-term RCT findings for Early Colleges in North Carolina (providing grade 9-13 students an opportunity to earn an associate degree or college credit during high school). Despite claims of large effects in the study’s abstract, its primary finding was a modest effect (2.4 percentage points, near statistically significant) on the rate of bachelor’s degree completion at the 10-year mark.

Early colleges are a model of schooling that combines the high school and college experiences, providing students the opportunity to simultaneously earn a high school diploma and an associate degree or 2 years of college credit. This article updates findings from a 17-year longitudinal experimental study of the model, examining the impact of the model on postsecondary performance and completion.  The study found positive impacts on overall degree completion, with very large impacts on associate degree completion. There were also positive impacts on bachelor’s degree completion for low-income students and first-generation college-goers.  For students  who enrolled in a public 4-year institution, the study found positive impacts on advanced coursetaking. There was no difference between treatment and comparison students on final college GPA or on the percentage of students who double-majored. Treatment students who earned a bachelor’s degree did so more quickly than comparison students.

Full Study Report

Early colleges are a model of schooling that combines the high school and college experiences, providing students the opportunity to simultaneously earn a high school diploma and an associate degree or 2 years of college credit. This article updates findings from a 17-year longitudinal experimental study of the model, examining the impact of the model on postsecondary performance and completion. The study found  a modest positive impact on the primary outcome of bachelor’s degree completion (2.4 percentage points) that approached statistical significance. The study's exploratory analyses produced findings that may help inform, and offer hypotheses for, future research. These include  positive impacts on overall degree completion, with very large impacts on associate degree completion. There were also positive impacts on bachelor’s degree completion for low-income students and first-generation college-goers. For students who enrolled in a public 4-year institution, the study found positive impacts on advanced coursetaking. There was no difference between treatment and comparison students on final college GPA or on the percentage of students who double-majored. Treatment students who earned a bachelor’s degree did so more quickly than comparison students.

No-Spin’s Study Overview

Large, high-quality RCT of Early Colleges in North Carolina finds an impact of 2.4 percentage points on the rate of bachelor’s degree completion at the 10-year follow-up (27.5% treatment vs. 25.1% control). The impact was not quite statistically significant (p=0.097), so is highly suggestive but not definitive.

Program:

  • Per the report: “Early colleges are a model of schooling that combines the high school and college experiences, providing students the opportunity to simultaneously earn a high school diploma and an associate degree or 2 years of college credit.”

Study Design:

  • The study examined 19 oversubscribed Early Colleges in North Carolina that used randomized admissions lotteries to allocate a sample of 4,073 incoming 9th graders to treatment (admission to an Early College high school) versus control (high school as usual). 35% of sample members were Black or Hispanic and 51% were economically disadvantaged.
  • Based on careful review, this was a high-quality RCT (e.g., large sample, baseline balance, negligible attrition, preregistered analyses). 92% of treatment group students enrolled in an Early College versus 1% of the control students, providing a strong treatment contrast.

Findings:

  • 10 years after program entry, the study found an impact on the preregistered primary outcome of bachelor’s degree completion of 2.4 percentage points (27.5% treatment vs. 25.1% control). The impact was not quite statistically significant (p=0.097), so is highly suggestive but not definitive.
  • The study found a statistically-significant 12 percentage point increase in receipt of any college credential, driven primarily by a large (23 percentage point) increase in associate degree completion. This shows successful treatment group take-up of Early Colleges' opportunity to earn an associate degree during high school. But, as an outcome measure, it may not be fair to the control group - which did not have this same opportunity.
  • The study preregistered two additional primary outcomes – employment and earnings at the 10-year mark – that will be the subject of future reports, shedding light on whether Early Colleges ultimately improve economic well-being.

Comment:

  • Arnold Ventures, which funds No-Spin Evidence Review, helped fund the North Carolina Early College RCT.

Click or tap a highlight to see No-Spin’s comment

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