A Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) of...

Bottom Line, An Intensive One-on-One Advising Program Helping Low-Income Students Get into and Graduate from College

Reviewed

Postsecondary Education
Accurately reported
Credible positive finding

Barr and Castleman posted (October 2026) initial long-term RCT results of Bottom Line, an intensive advising program that helps low-income high school students from get into and graduate from college. This high-quality RCT, which previously found sizable impacts on bachelors completion, found a significant 8% increase in earnings and no detectable impact on employment at the interim follow-up, 8-9 years after random assignment.

Relevant Excerpt from Study Report

We measure labor market outcomes in 2024 (the most recent data currently available) when members of the study sample were approximately 26 to 27 years old.  Students offered advising earned approximately $3,700 more in 2024. This is an 8 percent increase relative to the control group average of about $47,000. Advising also improved students’ economic standing relative to their peers. To measure standing, we rank each student against a nationally representative sample from the same birth cohorts. The average rank of the control group was right at the middle of the national distribution; advising raised a student’s rank by about four points on average, moving students to roughly the 54th percentile in the earnings distribution. The estimated effect on employment is positive but imprecise.

Full Study Report

We have no suggested revisions to the study overview.

No-Spin’s Study Overview

Large, high-quality RCT of Bottom Line, a program providing intensive advising to students from low-income backgrounds to help them get into and graduate from college, finds a $3,661 (8%) increase in earnings 8-9 years after random assignment. There was no detectable impact on employment, the study’s other main outcome. A longer-term follow-up measuring effects 10 years after random assignment is forthcoming.

Program:

  • Bottom Line is “an intensive college advising program that works with low-income and first generation students, beginning in high school and, for many students, continuing through college. Advisors help students identify well-matched, higher-quality colleges, complete applications and financial aid forms, and navigate the transition to college.”

Study Design:

  • The study sample comprised 2,422 eligible high school students in New York City, Boston, and Worcester, MA, who were randomly assigned to participate in Bottom Line (treatment) or receive usual services (control).
  • The average household income of these students was approximately $23,000. 70% were female, 64% were Black or Hispanic, and 81% were children whose parents had not attended college.
  • Based on our review criteria, this was a well-conducted RCT.

Findings:

  • In 2024, when participants were either 8 or 9 years post random assignment, the study found a statistically significant 8% ($3,661) increase in earnings. On average, treatment group members earned $50,731, compared to the $47,070 earned by control members.
  • There was no detectable impact on employment – the study’s second main outcome (88.4% T vs. 85.7% C).
  • These findings build on previous study follow-ups, which found that Bottom Line produced a 7.6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of earning a bachelor’s degree five years after high school graduation.

Comment:

  • Disclosure: Arnold Ventures, which funds the No-Spin Evidence Review, funded the Bottom Line RCT.

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